Where are all the eggs?
Where are all the eggs? And why are they so expensive?
It’s no surprise that there is a shortage of eggs at the grocery stores, and the ones that are there are increasingly expensive. There are many reasons for this, such as increased demand, transition to cage-free production, inflation, and supply chain challenges. However, the main reason for the lack of eggs is because of the bird flu.
Every time a new disease outbreak makes headlines, the same questions arise: How bad is it? How fast is it spreading? And, most importantly, how can we detect it quickly enough to stop it? As a diagnostic assay developer, my job is to create tests that provide fast, accurate answers to those questions.
What’s Going On with Bird Flu?
Bird flu isn’t new. It’s been around for decades, mostly affecting wild birds and poultry. However, recent outbreaks have raised concerns because they’ve spread to new regions, infected more bird species, and most worryingly, have been found in mammals, increasing the potential risk to humans.
When viruses evolve, they can jump between species. While human infections with bird flu remain rare, scientists watch these outbreaks closely because certain mutations could make transmission between humans easier. That’s where diagnostic testing plays a crucial role: early detection can help contain outbreaks before they escalate.
The ongoing avian influenza (bird flu) outbreak has had significant repercussions across various sectors, notably in poultry farming and egg production. As of early February 2025, the United States has reported approximately 66 human cases of the H5N1 strain since the start of 2024, primarily among individuals working closely with poultry or dairy farms. While most cases have been mild, there has been at least one fatality.
The poultry industry has been severely impacted, with over 20 million egg-laying hens lost in the last quarter due to the virus. This significant reduction in the laying flock has led to a 4.5% decrease in egg production as of December 2024 compared to the previous year. Consequently, consumers have experienced a sharp increase in egg prices. The average retail price for a dozen large grade-A eggs reached $4.15 last month, up from $2.51 the previous year. In some regions, prices have soared even higher, with reports of $7.24 in New York and $8.35 in California.
The strain on egg supplies has also led to a decline in egg quality. Producers are keeping older hens past their prime laying age to maintain production levels, resulting in weaker eggshells that are more prone to chipping. In response to the outbreak, authorities have implemented measures such as temporarily closing live poultry markets in New York City and surrounding counties to curb the virus's spread.
Despite these efforts, the situation remains dynamic, and the full impact on the poultry industry and egg availability continues to evolve.
How Do We Test for Bird Flu?
Detecting bird flu is like solving a molecular mystery. We develop tests that look for tiny fragments of the virus’s genetic code or its proteins. These tests fall into two main categories:
PCR Tests – The gold standard in virus detection. These tests work by amplifying the virus’s genetic material, making even tiny traces detectable. They’re incredibly sensitive and accurate but require specialized labs and trained personnel.
Rapid Antigen Tests – These work more like at-home COVID tests, detecting viral proteins. They’re faster and easier to use but can be less sensitive, meaning they might miss early or mild cases.
As scientists, we are constantly refining these tools to make them faster, cheaper, and more accessible so that we can track the virus in birds, livestock, and potentially even humans.
Why Fast Detection Matters
Imagine a scenario where a new bird flu strain spreads silently through poultry farms. Without testing, it might take weeks before symptoms appear, by which time the virus has already jumped to other farms—or even into the wild bird population. With rapid, widespread testing, we can identify cases early, isolate affected birds, and prevent further spread.
This is not just about protecting birds; it’s also about safeguarding human health. If a strain were to mutate in a way that allowed easy transmission between humans, early detection would give scientists and public health officials precious time to respond.
What’s Next?
Right now, diagnostic developers like myself are working on more advanced tests that can detect bird flu even faster and differentiate between different strains. The goal is to create portable, easy-to-use tests that can be deployed anywhere—on farms, at border crossings, or even in homes.
As we refine these tools, public awareness and cooperation remain crucial. If you hear about an outbreak near you, trust that there’s a whole team of scientists behind the scenes working to keep you safe. And if public health officials recommend testing for certain populations, know that early detection is one of our best weapons against emerging diseases.
Science may not always move as fast as a virus, but with the right tools, we can stay one step ahead. That’s what keeps us going in the lab every day developing the next generation of rapid tests.